Time Series Forecasting

pbenavides

What is a time series?

Is this a time series?

If we focus solely on the regular plot, we wouldn’t have any time series. However, when we map each variable through time, we now have multiple time series: one for each country regarding life exp., GDP per capita, and population.

Financial Series

Stocks

Stocks, FX, … are all time series

Cryptos

Any variable that is measured through time is a time series.

What are forecasts?

flowchart LR
    A(There are two types of Data Scientists)

flowchart LR
    A(There are two types of Data Scientists)
    A-->B(Those who can't predict the future)

flowchart LR
    A(There are two types of Data Scientists)
    A-->B(Those who can't predict the future)
    A-->C(Those who don't know that they can't predict the future)

No one, except for sorcerers and wizards, can predict the future.

Dr. Strange didn’t have the Time stone. He was using a high-tech gamer PC to run millions of simulations.

Can all variables be predicted with the same accuracy?

Eclipses

We can predict eclipses with complete certainty.

It’s not so easy to predict stock prices

Other variables can’t be predicted that easily. What does it depend on?

Electricity Demand

Forecasts

Beer Production Forecasts

Can you observe any strange patterns?

Which US Employment forecast works best?

Forecasting US Retail Employment using the Drift method

Forecasting US Retail Employment using the Seasonal Naive method

Forecasting US Retail Employment using ARIMA